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Author Topic: Campaign Readiness  (Read 629 times)
btrower
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« on: June 07, 2010, 12:17:31 PM »
+1

I think that we should focus our efforts around the notion of 'Campaign Readiness'.

According to Elections Canada, the seat for Winnipeg Center is vacant and although the by-election has not been scheduled, it is imminent.

Electoral district Winnipeg North (Man.)
Date Speaker's warrant received April 30, 2022
Earliest date to hold by-election June 21, 2022
Latest date to announce by-election October 27, 2021
Date of by-election - Not yet announced.


From: http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=cir&document=vacant_2008&dir=dis&lang=e&textonly=false

This would be an excellent chance to see what we are against, 'up-close'.

Winnipeg Center contains or is near enough to the University of Winnipeg, I believe. Through the University grape-vine we should be able to get some presence there.

I have been looking at the mechanics of getting elected. I could write an essay on how important being 'election focused' is to a policital party. Parties that do not get any members elected eventually die *and* you are not very likely to get elected unless you really work hard at it.

I do not have the numbers (but will crunch them if someone gets them for me into a spreadsheet), but it is pretty clear to me that there is a very strong correlation between dollars spent on a campaign and the outcome of the campaign. Number of votes appears to correlate strongly with dollars spent for all the candidates, including the winner.

Whatever the strict relationship, it is clear that you need around a dollar or so per vote. I have a feeling that if you could raise about $1.50 per eligible voter, you would have an excellent chance of getting elected.

Here are the results of recent federal elections in that riding.

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/PastResults.aspx?L=e&ED=46011&EV=99&EV_TYPE=6&PC=R3B2E9&Prov=&ProvID=&MapID=&QID=11&PageID=28&TPageID=

Here is a page showing recent results and the dollars involved:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnipeg_Centre

Official Description and map:

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/Map.aspx?L=e&ED=46011&EV=99

Census profile:

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/Profile.aspx?L=E&ED=46011&EV=99

There are about 58K voters in that riding, of which 25K voted. Total expenditures in the election for that riding appear to have been about $77K. That is about $1.30 spent, on average, per eligible voter and a little over $3.00 per vote.

Although money is necessary, it is not sufficient. I would say that to make a successful bid in that riding, we would need to raise about $50K. Much less than that would not likely win it. To make money one of the things that goes strongly in our favor, I would suggest we make a goal of about $150K. That is a lot to raise from this riding -- it is one of poorest ridings in Canada. In fact, last I saw, it was the second poorest in the country.

It is crude, to say the least, to start with finances, but it is pretty clear from the incredible amount of attention paid to this, that it is critical to the goal of getting elected.

I have a feeling that although there is a correlation, its causality is murky. Does popular support yield greater financial support or do finances affect the vote directly? I expect it is a little of both. I know from personal experience that even the most lavish spending will not elect a candidate for which there is not much initial voter support. That is, unless there is a strong 'grass-roots' organization on the ground you will not win an election no matter how much you spend.

In the riding in question, in a prior election, the liberal candidate outspent (in total dollars), the winning NDP candidate by more than 25%. This expenditure translated into votes, but those votes cost an averate of more than $7 each. The NDP candidate won by spending a little over $4 per vote.

There appears to be a relationship between what one candidate spends and what another spends. Were we to put together a large war-chest of $150K it would likely cause the incumbent NDP candidate to spend about $100K. This would partially cancel out any advantage conferred by the money. Still, it would likely put us well in the race. If the donations are from individuals it would be a good barometer for how votes would play out.

I note that the turnouts have only been about 50%. If we could somehow find the non-voters and bring them out to vote for us, it would be enough to win an election in that riding (and likely others as well). I honestly think that we could and should focus at least some of our 'pitch' on just getting the vote out.

Althought the time to put this together is short, I think it is doable. A win would be great and put us on the map. Whatever we did, it would provide a valuable learning experience for the organization.

There are many things to work out between where we are now and getting members elected to Parliament. A lot of things can be roughly estimated and we can, in turn, infer what would be needed to support our goals. If, for instance, it is our goal to win, then we need to run a winning campaign. Although we know that $50K will not guarantee a win, we can be pretty certain that a budget of $10K will guarantee a loss.

I am a former member of the NDP and the NDP youth before that. I still have a soft spot for the NDP and, all things being equal, I still vote for them. If there is a PPC candidate in my riding, I would vote for them. Otherwise, I would vote NDP.

I have a certain reluctance about running against the NDP. I would hate to see them lose a seat. However, in this instance, the fact that it is a strong NDP riding would likely work to our advantage. Although it takes about 13K votes (about a quarter of eligible voters) to take the riding with the NDP fully supported, that number drops as we siphon off votes from them. In normal circumstances, there appear to be about 11K hard-core NDP voters. However, the current election results from the sitting NDP member vacating their seat to run in another election. I have a feeling that this circumstance could well shake that core of voters a little. I partially asuage my conscience with the notion that we can't cause another candidate to defeat the NDP. We would be taking votes from all parties and unless we won, the NDP would win anyway.

As a general rule, ridings have a certain political 'character' that gives them hard support for a given party. Some ridings (this would appear to be one) are a near sure-thing for a given party. In general, elections will favor those parties. As a general rule, elections favor an incumbent. I am not sure if this is an artifact of what got them in there in the first place or some 'incumbent effect'. However, in the case of this riding, there *is* no incumbent. To some extent, this riding is wide-open again. The NDP candidate will be a new one like everyone else.

A quick look at the news appears to indicate that the NDP is not too intensely looking for a strong candidate and it is uncertain if they are prepared to fight a difficult election against a determined challenger.

I am not certain how the amounts spent in by-elections shape up, but my suspicion is that they would be higher than in a general election. The parties only have to support the one election and in some instances it could be an important seat. On the other hand, since a general election has not mobilized all the troops, it could be that nationally the parties do not have the human resources to support the election from the national level. For us, since we are in building mode already, we would be at full strength and presumably, if we have a chance here, we would be putting a lot of those resources into supporting the election. For us, this would, in essence, be the same as a general election.

I have a feeling that the likely party affiliation of voters who do not normally vote differs from those who do. That is, if the non-voters were to vote, the election percentages would vary, perhaps markedly. As a point of strategy, we might be well served by getting those who usually do not vote out to the polls.

Winnipeg Center is an attractive target, it seems to me. With the University nearby, we have an entre with a crowd that likely has a greater and more visceral understanding of our core issues. We also have a more cohesive group to target. Our message can be clear, simple and focused for them.

Winnipeg Center is very small physically. It is possible to cover the enire area on foot. This is attractive to us for a number of reasons. We can get greater visibility with few signs. If we can assemble a large enough workforce we can get them to meet centrally and then canvas on foot after a pep-talk.

One thing that I am thinking could work very well for us is if we were to mobilize all 'Pirate Sympathetic' people in the city and get them to help us in that riding. It is physically proximate to a large population and even though we might not have a large *percentage* of the population that would be immediatly sympathetic, this could well translate into large enough numbers to mount a good campaign. For instance, the population of Winnipeg is just about ten times the population of the riding. It takes 25 percent of the voters to carry that riding. If riding association resources are roughly equivalent to votes carried, then to match the 'in-riding' resources of the other parties, we would only need to get one tenth of that or 2.5 percent of the city's population. Can we, as a new party, reach one in 40 of the people who would work in an election campaign? I think we can.

Whether we can realistically field a candidate in Winnipeg Center, I think it would be an excellent discipline, to help us get our ducks lined up, to act as if we *are* fielding a candidate in that riding. This will give the party experience in gathering the resources necessary to fight elections generally.

In the old forums, I postulated that we could form a government and that it is in our best interests to act as if we expect to do so. If only the people who do not even show up at the polls were to vote for us, we would form the next government for certain.


Even if we have difficulty mobilizing a winning campaign in Winnipeg Center, it might serve us well to get involved so that we can work out all the 'kinks' in the machine. Having been involved in political campaigns in the past, I can tell you that there is much to deal with and the party has not really scratched the surface of the things required to fight and win an election.

My time is limited (you would hardly know that from the length of my posts). I will be looking in from time to time and will offer to help as I am able. I will certainly answer direct questions if I can.

If we are going to make a pitch for Winnipeg Center, I will help with what I know about doing market research, organizing and managing people, purchasing stuff, etc. A lot of things are 'tricky', but fairly easy if you know the direction to take.

It is helpful to take the mindset that 'we will win'. It causes us to do, for instance, things like approaching companies, organizations and wealthier individuals for donations. We might not otherwise think to do so. It also causes us to at least address the issue of getting signage up in stores and other places. By inference, it causes us to determine how many signs we need and what they should look like. Say, for instance, there is some subtle problem with our artwork that makes it unsuitable 'as-is' to putting up signs. It is better to work that out in practice rather than simply hope for the best at election time. Approaching an election with a genuine intention and expectation of winning will force us to be realistic in determining what we need to win and conducting ourselves appropriately.

I think we should use this opportunity to do all the 'nuts and bolts' research required to get on with the business of getting elected. Things such as metrics with respect to physical geography and related logistics, number of voters in a riding (it varies a fair amount), expected turnouts, makeup of the constituency, past voting practices, etc can all be obtained in advance of an election for all the ridings. We could use this one as a dry run for these things, even if we elect not to field a candidate.

If we do not field a candidate, but can find a way to mobilize a riding association to help in an election, we should give some thought to determining which of the candidates is most sympathetic to our cause and pitch in to help them get elected. This would help us a little in advancing our general cause.

Whatever we do, I think we should focus on doing what is required to get elected. That is what political parties do. Rather than having an election and its associated problems and opportunities take us by surprise, we should be pro-active in developing 'full-on election preparedness'.

I have a (perhaps fanciful) notion that the successful pary of the future will be in touch with the constituents in a riding long before an election takes place and that the voters will, in essence, not be voting for us, but rather for themselves. That is, we truly represent their best interests and represent their wishes faithfully by knowing what those wishes are and either persuading them to our point of view or doing as they wish.

There is an old chestnut that 'all politics is local'. I belive that to be true. People will vote based on what is important to them. We need to get some practice in showing how our core issues relate directly to people where they live. We need to learn how to persuade people. We alo need some practice and education ourselves. We have to build a representative platform that deals with the most pressing issues that concern local voters. Although our 'core' issues are important, they will not decide an election. To get our issues into the public debate, we need to be ready willing and able to debate the other issues as well.


doconnor
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2010, 02:08:34 PM »
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According to Elections Canada, the seat for Winnipeg Center is vacant and although the by-election has not been scheduled, it is imminent.

Actually it is Winnipeg North that is vacant, not Winnipeg Centre.

I have been looking at the mechanics of getting elected. I could write an essay on how important being 'election focused' is to a policital party. Parties that do not get any members elected eventually die *and* you are not very likely to get elected unless you really work hard at it.

The Green Party was founded in 1983, but it hasn't elected any members, yet. The Communist Party of Canada's history goes back to the 1920s, although it did elect one member in 1945.

While all this talk of winning is probably not realistic, doing as well as the Greens and getting 1000 votes would be a tremendous achievement, getting a candidate in this bielection should be a priority because it will allow the party to become officially registered.

All members who live in Manitoba (even Manitobians who don't live in Winnipeg visit it) should be contacted, informed about this bielection, asked what they can do to help and if they want to be the candidate. If a local candidate cannot be found the leader should run.

The biggest step to running it getting the 100 signatures, but it can't be that hard given how often candidates from little known parties run.
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2010, 02:38:46 PM »
-1

If you can get a few hundred people to sign a petition to ban dihydrogen monoxide you can probably get that many to sign something to get you to run

Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.
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Jake Daynes
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2010, 02:51:00 PM »
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Though looking at the previous elections in BOTH of those ridings, they are NDP strongholds; this is tied into the fact that they ARE very poor ridings, and due to the NDP's "Anti-Big Business, More Little Guy" approach that has made them so successful. I don't think we have a candles hope in a hurricane of winning that riding.

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Mikkel Paulson
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2010, 03:01:47 PM »
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Only individuals can donate to political parties.

As far as I know, we currently have about $2k in liquid assets. I don't see how we can spend $50k on any election anywhere in the near future.

As a registered party, we are not obligated to run in by-elections. We can do so, but if we don't have a strong candidate, there's no point. However, being a registered party before the writ of the general election drops would give us a boost to our legitimacy. (An eligible party like us becomes a registered party when we register our first candidate.)

I agree that our candidates have an obligation to participate in their constituency that does not begin and end with an election.

"All parties are local", yet all major party platforms are nation-wide. This is where we have the opportunity to make inroads. Our candidates have the ability to build their own platforms beyond those of the Party, which gives us the ability to tailor each candidate to suit the ideology of their riding. Furthermore, our platform can be approached from all angles. Leftist ridings could be swayed by the argument that the government is caving on copyright law to corporate interests, while right-wing ridings see the government stepping in to meddle with free capitalism. Rural ridings see agricultural patents threatening their livelihoods, while left-wing urban ridings can see how much our health care services could improve without pharmaceutical patents and right-wing urban ridings can see how much money is wasted on patents. Everyone is concerned by the loss of privacy in recent years, and everyone is cynical about their government and wants to see what's going on.


Ultimately, we can't afford to generously fund every riding. We need to target our funds carefully, and while Winnipeg North may be a suitable riding, it is far from perfect for us. I have no problem with running a candidate there, but we can only fund the ridings where we have the best chance.
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2010, 03:16:42 PM »
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As a registered party, we are not obligated to run in by-elections. We can do so, but if we don't have a strong candidate, there's no point. However, being a registered party before the writ of the general election drops would give us a boost to our legitimacy. (An eligible party like us becomes a registered party when we register our first candidate.)

I believe the party have to be registered to give tax receipts. With Canada's very generous tax credits (you get 75% of your contribution back on your first $400 of donation) it is a powerful incentive.

Can tax receipts be given on donations made before registration?
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2010, 03:19:12 PM »
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No.
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2010, 10:21:42 PM »
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Sadly no. I've even had to turn down a few contributions because of it.

But we should field a candidate in whichever by-election we can fight in to get the registered status.

Is there anyone on the forum in Winnipeg North ?

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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2010, 01:02:54 AM »
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Anthony is I believe, not sure he's an ideal candidate though.
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2010, 01:53:27 AM »
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We have 5 members in Winnipeg North
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2010, 06:23:43 AM »
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Well we need to figure out who if any of them wants to step up and run then...

Hell even if someone just drops the $1000 deposit and sits on their ass and does nothing it'd be useful to the party because when a general election occurs we'll have everything up and rolling for a real campaign and be able to get funding more easily.

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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2010, 12:36:32 PM »
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It should be Jake if no one from the area steps up. The 5 members, if they are interested in doing anything, could help do things locally.
btrower
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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2010, 12:53:59 PM »
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According to Elections Canada, the seat for Winnipeg Center is vacant and although the by-election has not been scheduled, it is imminent.

Actually it is Winnipeg North that is vacant, not Winnipeg Centre.

Of coures. Sorry about that. At least I got the links right!
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2010, 01:44:45 PM »
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Re: Only individuals can donate to political parties.

I just had to review this. Things have changed since I was last active with this kind of stuff.

For those who are interested, the new rules are here:

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=fin&document=index&dir=lim&lang=e&textonly=false

Note that:

"A registered party can issue tax receipts and authorize its registered electoral district associations to issue tax receipts for eligible monetary contributions."

AND

"Tax credits are also available for donations to confirmed candidates."

== We need to find out how we can solicit donations for our candidate, but as pledges (perhaps collected and deposited in trust) and issue documentation to allow people to take their tax deduction. Note that the money goes to the *Candidate* and only when they *are* a bona-fide Candidate.

This is really good news for us for a variety of reasons. One thing that comes to mind is this:

Suppose you are very rich and the contribution limit is meaningless to you. In the old days, you would put all your money on the one horse you want win. You can no longer do that. If money means little to you, the way to maximize your chances of being a contributor to the winner is to bet on all the horses.

Even though the riding is poor, there will be some wealthy individuals in the riding. We need 50 to contribute the limit. I am not sure how it works, exactly, but you get a bunch of that money back from elections Canada if you perform at a certain level.

Here is what I suggest: Find salesmen -- real ones with experience developing cold leads and closing deals. Get them to volunteer, give them the suppor they need and set them loose on leads you develop with them. Although 50 'deals' is a lot, it is certainly doable. A few good people could put all of those in the bag.

Re: As far as I know, we currently have about $2k in liquid assets. I don't see how we can spend $50k on any election anywhere in the near future.

I would not expect ether the party or the candidate to transfer funds to one another, at least for this first go-round. We should set about the business of getting party members and volunteers and raising funds directly on behalf of the candidate.

Re: As a registered party, we are not obligated to run in by-elections. We can do so, but if we don't have a strong candidate, there's no point.

Let's not give up before we even start. I agree that a 'strong candidate' is important. Let's forget about feeling bad that we don't have one yet. Let's instead set about finding one. This is a little macabre (sorta), but I would be inclined to seek someone who has already run in an election. A good bet might be to find someone who has retired from politics and sell them on 'one more go'.

Re: I agree that our candidates have an obligation to participate in their constituency that does not begin and end with an election.

Sure. We do not have to commit to running a candidate in Win North. We can simply agree that we will focus our membership drive in that riding with the hope that we can get enough going to field a candidate. Again. let's not give up before we even try.

Re: "All parties are local", yet all major party platforms are nation-wide. This is where we have the opportunity to make inroads. Our candidates have the ability to build their own platforms beyond those of the Party, which gives us the ability to tailor each candidate to suit the ideology of their riding.

I sort of agree with this, but only to a certain point. The Party needs to have a sound core that constitutes an actual stand on things. If we do not, then we are little different from the Liberal party. That is basically their thing. They go the way the wind blows. The NDP and its forerunners and the Conservative party have (or did have last I saw) a certain idealogical viewpoint -- values from which their stance on issues spring. I think that we should look to develop a gentle core idealogy with which most would agree and leave local those things which are properly local. I would add to this the notion that our candidates are, by our principles, allowed always to 'vote their conscience' and to 'represent their constituents' ahead of voting on Party lines.

Re: Ultimately, we can't afford to generously fund every riding.

I think I disagree with your reasoning, but I operationally agree with the outcome of that reasoning. For sure, funding should come from the local riding. Certainly with only $2K in the coffers, the Party can have little impact financially. Spending those funds on this riding would just weaken the entire enterprise. If we can't get funds on that order locally, we can't really run a campaign whether we send the money or not.

Re: We need to target our funds carefully, and while Winnipeg North may be a suitable riding, it is far from perfect for us.

I have no intelligence to either agree or disagree with this statement. What makes you think that this is not good? What, in your opinion, would be a 'perfect riding'? If you can define that somehow from prior election results either here or abroad, maybe we can find some way of shifting it closer to perfection.

In any event, whatever we do, I think it is only prudent to focus what efforts we can towards building membership in the riding, finding a suitable candidate and hopefully getting our hat in the ring. Eventually we will have to run in an election. If we do everything short of actually fielding a candidate we will likely encounter many things we did not think about beforehand. For instance, what is a 'good candidate' from our point of view? We would like them to win, certainly, but not at any cost. Where do we draw the line? What do we seek and how? How do we get members to get behind a candidate? That is, if they wanted the nomination but did not get it, how do we work with that?

When it gets right down to it, there are a lot of questions for which we almost certainly do not have answers and many answers would fall out of the *process* of a *live*, *real* and *determined* effort to run and win in this riding. We would learn a lot, even if we fall short of fielding a candidate and we will need to learn this stuff eventually.
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« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2010, 10:54:29 PM »
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Perhaps this thread should be renamed "Winnipeg North By-election Campaign".

All members who live in Manitoba (even Manitobians who don't live in Winnipeg visit it) should be contacted, informed about this bielection, asked what they can do to help and if they want to be the candidate. If a local candidate cannot be found the leader should run.

We should try and find a candidate before the by-election is called. I have put a draft email that can be sent to the members who live in Manitoba on the wiki.

We should also find an accountant for this campaign.
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